18 de out de 2010

Bloomberg - Roubini Expects 35-40% Chance of a Double Dip Recession in U.S.


Roubini Expects 35-40% Chance of a Double Dip Recession in U.S.


New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said he expects a 35 percent to 40 percent chance of the U.S. entering a double-dip recession, highlighting the risks faced by the world’s largest economy.
“Since second quarter growth in U.S. was only 1.7 percent and everything’s going to be weaker in the second half of the year, by the fourth quarter economic growth in the U.S. could be as low as 1 percent,” Roubini said in a conference today in Seoul. “The growth rate is so low it’s going to feel like a recession even if technically this is not a recession.”
Federal Reserve policy makers last month said U.S. growth is likely to be “modest in the near term” and added that they are prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed. The recovery of advanced economies including the U.S. is likely to be anemic and “U-shaped,” Roubini said.
The dollar today fell to a 15-year low versus the yen and its weakest since January against the euro before the release of economic reports likely to fuel speculation the Fed will loosen credit further to support prices. The U.S. currency traded at 81.19 yen at 2:02 p.m. in Tokyo from 81.81 in New York yesterday, and is at $1.4075 per euro from $1.3961.
High Unemployment
A U.S. jobless rate hovering near 10 percent is shaking consumer confidence and limiting spending, the biggest part of the economy.
Roubini, who predicted the credit crisis, said that the U.S.’s potential growth rate is about 3 percent. Since the pace of expansion is much slower than that, there won’t be enough creation of jobs in the U.S., he said.
Weak U.S. growth in the second quarter means the odds of a double-dip recession is as high as 40 percent from the previous 25 percent, said Roubini, chairman of New York-based Roubini Global Economics LLC.
Deflation Risk
Deflation is the biggest risk for advanced economies, Roubini said. Japan’s producer prices in September fell for the first time since July as the yen’s gain makes imports cheaper, according to Bank of Japan data released today.
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in September after a 0.3 percent gain the prior month, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before tomorrow’s report.
Roubini said Japan’s central bank isn’t reacting aggressively to economic developments. The Bank of Japan on Oct. 5 created a 5 trillion yen ($61 billion) fund to buy bonds and other assets, and pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate at “virtually zero” until the end of deflation is in sight.
In contrast with the sluggish pace of recovery among advanced economies, emerging economies are likely to undergo rapid and sharp rebounds, Roubini said.

Nenhum comentário: